Former President Donald Trump received a significant boost in his chances of winning North Carolina, with a new poll showing him ahead by 5 percentage points over Vice President Kamala Harris. The latest Rasmussen Reports survey, conducted with the conservative online magazine American Thinker, shows Trump leading Harris 51% to 46% among likely voters in the Tar Heel State.
This latest poll, based on the responses of 1,042 voters between October 9 and October 14, highlights one of Trump’s largest leads in the state, which could prove to be a crucial battleground in November. With just three weeks left until Election Day, North Carolina is emerging as a tipping-point state that could determine the election’s outcome.
Voters in the survey overwhelmingly identified the economy and border security as their top concerns, a dynamic that has favored Trump throughout the race. Border security was cited as the number one issue for 29% of respondents, followed closely by inflation and rising prices at 24%. This stark focus on issues central to Trump’s platform reflects the growing dissatisfaction with Harris’s handling of critical policy areas.
The desire for change is palpable among North Carolinians. A staggering 70% of voters in the poll expressed a strong desire for a “major change” from the current administration. With a failing economy and rising crime rates, voters are rallying behind Trump’s promise of a safer and more prosperous future, leaving Harris struggling to regain footing.
A second poll from The Wall Street Journal conducted between September 28 and October 8 had shown a much narrower contest in North Carolina, with Trump and Harris tied. However, this latest Rasmussen poll indicates a substantial shift in momentum in favor of the former president, suggesting that Trump’s rallies and focus on key issues resonate with voters in the final stretch.
Mark Mitchell, a pollster at Rasmussen, echoed this sentiment, stating in an interview with War Room that Harris’s campaign is in serious trouble. “Between now and Election Day, she needs an act of God to win,” Mitchell remarked. The vice president’s declining poll numbers are a stark reminder of how far she has fallen since the early days of her campaign, where Democrats hoped to capitalize on anti-Trump sentiment.
This collapse in support for Harris extends beyond North Carolina. In Pennsylvania, another critical swing state, the polling has remained virtually tied for over a month. However, after the vice-presidential debate, Pennsylvania shifted in Trump’s favor, signaling growing support for his campaign nationwide. Betting markets have followed suit, with predictions showing Trump as the clear favorite to win in several swing states.
The vice president is struggling to gain traction among key demographics. Harris’s support among black voters, a group instrumental in President Biden’s 2020 victory, has plummeted to 67%, the lowest of her campaign. Similarly, her backing among white voters with a college degree has also slipped, further widening Trump’s path to victory.
Trump, on the other hand, has solidified his base and is gaining support from voters who disapproved of him during his first term. A recent Fox News survey found that a majority of likely voters, 53%, now approve of the job Trump did while in office—a significant improvement from his presidency.
The polling data highlights Harris’s steep uphill battle. Even in national polls, Trump is beginning to widen his lead. Rasmussen’s national daily tracking poll has Trump leading Harris 50% to 48%, and other polling firms report similar trends.
Harris’s failure to appeal to the broader electorate could result in a catastrophic loss. For Democrats, this raises the alarming possibility that they could not only lose the popular vote but also the Electoral College.
With the clock ticking, Trump’s surge in battleground states like North Carolina signals a turning point in the 2024 election. The former president’s ability to energize his base, coupled with Harris’s inability to win over critical voter blocs, has put the vice president on a path to a potentially devastating defeat.
